The Community Blog for Business Analysts

Marc Thibault
Marc Thibault

Planning for Uncertainty

The probability that a project will succeed is different for different cost and time targets. There isn't a single right answer to "How long will it take?" or "How much will it cost?" There are a whole bunch of answers, each with its own probability of being right.

The conventional techniques for planning projects only give us one answer—and it's wrong; it's invariably optimistic. Optimism is a good thing as an attitude, but we don't want it in our estimates.

Worse, it usurps management authority to decide how much risk to accept in the target. Impossible goals and missed targets are bad for morale; poor morale leads to lower productivity and trouble retaining good staff. With better information, we can choose more realistic targets and hit them more often.

Effective planning and estimating tools should give us an accurate picture of the relationship between targets and the probabilities of meeting those targets. This is information we can use; if we know what shape the odds are, we can take action to improve the odds or hedge them. We can identify and address problems sooner.

Generally accepted techniques for project planning and estimating don't give us the information we need to do that. Calibrated estimators, good models, probability management and Monte Carlo simulation do.

This entry was published on Jul 12, 2010 / Marc Thibault. Posted in Business Analysis Planning (BABOK KA), Project Management, Estimation. Bookmark the Permalink or E-mail it to a friend.
Like this article:
  3 members liked this article

Related Articles

COMMENTS

Only registered users may post comments.

Modern Analyst Blog Latests

As we start a new year many of us will take the time to reflect on our accomplishments from 2012 and plan our goals for 2013. We can set small or large goals. goals that will be accomplished quickly or could take several years. For 2013, I think Business Analysts should look to go beyond our traditional boundaries and set audacious goals. Merriam-...
Recently, I was asked by the IIBA to present a talk at one of their chapter meetings. I am reprinting here my response to that invitation in the hope that it will begin a conversation with fellow EEPs and BAs about an area of great concern to the profession. Hi xx …. Regarding the IIBA talk, there is another issue that I am considering. It's p...
Continuing the ABC series for Business Analysts, Howard Podeswa created the next installment titled "BA ABCs: “C” is for Class Diagram" as an article rather than a blog post. You can find the article here: BA ABCs: “C” is for Class Diagram Here are the previous two posts: BA ABCs: “A” is for Activity Diagram BA ABCs: “B” is for BPMN

 



Blog Information

» What is the Community Blog and what are the Benefits of Contributing?

» Review our Blog Posting Guidelines.

» I am looking for the original Modern Analyst blog posts.

 




Copyright 2006-2024 by Modern Analyst Media LLC